Rosenborg BK - Strømsgodset IF

Norway – Tippeligaen

Kick-off:             09/Jul          18:00 CET

Pick:                  Strømsgodset IF (+1,5)

Odds:                 1,87 @ Pinnacle

Stake:                6/10


Result:               2-0     Profit:   -6,00

Rosenborg performs quite poor this year, gained only 19 points after 13 rounds. Midfielders Skjelbred and Henriksen plays well, goalkeeper Örlund and attacker Prica were also good sometimes, but some youngsters, who got chance from coach Jan Jönsson – Svensson and Bakenga – need more time at this level. Hamburg has signed Skjelbred this week but RBK want keep him until 5th August because the Champions League qualify games, he is very important midfielder and he did not glad, he wanted to join to Hamburg earlier. For this game Rosenborg will be without key striker Rade Prica, who picked up an injury against Viking. He is not 100% fit and Jönsson won’t risk before the important Champions League qualify game against Breidablik, RBK will play with same starting eleven like against Sarpsborg last week. Yes, they won by 4-0, but without doubt Sarpsborg is much weaker than Godset, furthermore played without their two best players  Jørgensen and Hoås. Add to this that Rosenborg had seven days while Sarpsborg had only three days to recover before that meeting.

This clash against Strømsgodset will be different in my opinion. The guests improved a lot at defence  compared with last year. Riddez has left before the season, but central defenders Madsen and Aas recovered after long term injuries and both are key players this year. Key left back Vilsvik have injured against Vålerenga, but all other regular players are reported as available, Sætra – Madsen – Aunan – Aas defence is most likely. The midfield seems also decent, but I miss the goals from the attacking players. Kamara scored four goals, Keita only one, Storflor and Berget are goalless so far, it is not enough, but fact that Godset is playing well as team and they are near the top three with 23 points after 13 games, while Brann gained 26 points after 15 games, leader Molde has 29 points after 15 games.

It seems a very high handicap for me. Godset is rated as poor travellers but they earned a 2-2 draw against Vålerenga last week, before that lost against Viking (NM Cup) by 1-0 despite that played well and deserved at least draw. Bookies offered similar odds with -1,5 asian last year on Rosenborg – Strømsgodset, but Rosenborg is much weaker while Strømsgodset looks more stable team this year, so it is a bit strange. I think the hosts are looking forward the CL qualify and they will improve after sign some new players, it could be more difficult match than the odds suggest, I expect a difficult home win (1-0, 2-1) or maybe we will see a surprise.

IK Start - Sogndal Fotball

Norway – Tippeligaen

Kick-off:             03/Jul         18:00 CET

Pick:                  Sogndal Fotball (+1)

Odds:                 1,68 @ 188Bet

Stake:                6/10


Result:               1-1     Profit:   +4,08

Start fight against the relegation this year and the guys played without self confidence lately. Coach Knut Tørum has left the club two weeks ago but it did not help, they are still hopeless with Frode Fredriksen. They knocked out Strømsgodset from the cup with poor performance and some lucky but then lost against Vålerenga and Lillestrøm. I must mention that Lillestrøm’s goalkeeper Magnússon got red card in the 77th minute when the result was 1-0 and Start equalized after penalty but was unable to keep the result and Lillestrøm won by 2-1 deservedly.

Sogndal is still on the last place and seems hopeless after lost last game against Fredrikstad at home. But they had seven days to recover after a hard period when played four games during ten days, include Cup game with extra time and penalties. They eliminated against Brann and now concentrate only the championship. They played defensive minded football, I think Start is not strong enough at the moment and can not win by two or more goals margin against them, I see bigger chance for a draw than a huge home win. We can find only two games when Sogndal lost by two goals margin during the last three months, first against Brann, that was the worst match for goalkeeper Udjus, who performed well during the whole season but made huge mistakes against Brann. Second was against Molde but that was tighter match than the result shows, could have been 0-1 with a bit lucky. And of course Brann and Molde are both much stronger than Start this year.

Start will play with their best starting eleven likely while Sogndal will be still without team captain E. Bakke, it is not serious problem becouse he did not have a single good match this season which could have been expected. Regular central midfielder Furebotn and some reservist guys are still out due to injury problems. Both teams are in very bad form, this -1 asian looks too high for me. The visitors could be in better condition after rested seven days while the hosts played five games during two weeks and did not have big victory since 16th April. Much more handicap in my opinion, I expect a very tight game, 0-0, 1-1 or similar. The price dropped a lot despite that most of punters favoured Start, bookies know something...

Fredrikstad FK - Tromsø IL

Norway – Tippeligaen

Kick-off:             04/Jul         19:00 CET

Pick:                  Fredrikstad FK (-0,25)

Odds:                 1,94 @ 188Bet

Stake:                6/10


Result:               0-2     Profit:   -6,00

Basically I put against Tromsø here. They are in bad financial situation and sold two very important players, midfielder Reginiussen and right defender Høgli have left the club this week. Key central defender Koppinen and team captain Rushfeldt are doubtful. The squad is quite short and I think Tromsø will be much weaker than was with Reginiussen and Høgli, if Koppinen and Rushfeld will be out that will be a big blow. On top of that they played Europa League qualification match in Daugavpils, Latvia (around 1800 Km) and have to travel to Fredrikstad four days later, more 1200 Km. They have played four times away from home this season, draw against Molde and newcomers Sogndal (who was closer to win!), another draw with Strømsgodset and finally lost against Rosenborg, poor away results.

Fredrikstad improved after a downturn (4l – 1d), knocked out Odd Grenland from NM Cup then won over Sogndal and Haugesund, both 1-0 (Haugesund played without a lot of regular players). They did not impress me but this performance could be enough against Tromsø. Fredrikstad is playing two games at home during five days and uses natural grass while Tromsø uses artifical grass and has been more difficult schedule during these days. For this game FFK central defender Piiroja is doubtful but Martinsen could be a decent replacement, he was regular player last year just new signing Horn performed better and Martinsen became reservist player. All in all it is much more big price for FFK, I expect home win here.

FK Haugesund - Odd Grenland

Norway – Tippeligaen

Kick-off:             03/Ju       18:00 CET

Pick:                  FK Haugesund (-0,5)

Odds:                 2,11 @ 188Bet

Stake:                6/10


Result:               2-1     Profit:   +6,66

There is only one point that separates two teams but as we know Haugesund is very strong at home. They are struggling with a lot of injury problems this year, regular left back J. V. Nilsen, key central back A. Tronseth, central midfielders E. Mæland and J. Steinsland are still out due to long term injuries. For this game best defender – considering only the fit players – T. Nordberg is doubtful. Anyway the defence has been shaky, Nordberg and Kristiansen (goalkeeper) showed good performance so it is not the best news that Nordberg is doubtful but the forward section works well and Bamberg – Sørum – Djurdjic trio will be back after minor injury problems. They have gained points thanks to their excellent attackers not due to a famous defence. The team was defeated  last round against Fredrikstad, of course that was an away match and key attacking players were injured, no wonder that Haugesund was poor.

Odd Grenland seems much weaker than previous year. They managed two wins lately against Fredrikstad and Molde, both ended of 1-0 and both was boring, low quality game. They visited Brann three days ago and suffered a 2-0 defeat deservedly. They can not create chances usually,  only F. Johnsen plays well in front, Bentley is missing after sold to Brann before the season, Myklebust, Midtgarden, Storbæk, Krogsgård and Rashani are much too young or unexperienced at this level while Børven and Andersson are still out due to injuries.

Haugesund can surprise at home any teams with great attacking players who are back after skipped last round, Odd Grenland has not serious chance there, I think so. More things which confirm this tip that Haugesund had four days to recover after last round while visitors had only three days and have to play two games in a row away from home. The hosts use natural grass at their home stadium, Odd Grenland uses artificial pitch. I expect a clear Haugesund win like against Start on their last home Tippeligaen meeting, they dominated and created a lot of chances and won despite that Bangura got red card after 64 minutes.

Viking FK - Sarpsborg 08 FF

Norway – Tippeligaen

Kick-off:             30/Jun      19:00 CET

Pick:                     Viking FK (-0,75)

Odds:                   1,85 @ Pinnacle

Stake:                   6/10


Result:                 2-2     Profit:   -6,00

This pick does not need a big explanation. I have put on Viking last week against champions Rosenborg (with +0,25 asian handicap of course), both teams had a few goal chances but Viking had bigger and was a bit closer to win. They are in quite decent form this month since the coach made changes within the team but I have written a few lines about these several times. Age Hareide can use same players in the starting eleven, Sokolowski, Knarvik, Danielsen and Ingelsten are still injured, no other missing. 19 years old guy Landu has integrated into the team and plays pretty good on the midfield, Bjarnason is back from the Icelandic National Team and played very useful last week. The most negative disappointment is Nevland so far, he did not play as a chief so far.

Sarpsborg managed amazing results at their home stadium, but totally different if plays on away field, they have gained only two points so far, which one was luckily 1-1 draw against Fredrikstad.  Other draw against Tromsø was deserved, besides I did not see good performance from them during the whole season, Haugesund, Strømsgodset, Odd Grenland and Vålerenga beat them easily. On the top of that important attacking midfielder Røn is doubtful while key attacker – and topscorer – Hoås injured.

It is not question that how seriously Viking players will approach this game. They are still under the safety line, it is shame with this squad but they are meeting a much weaker opponent. I do not expect a tight match, Viking must win this one by 2-3 goals margin. They are great club with decent financial background, have good players, very experienced coach. It could be a tough match for the visitors, who showed weaker performance during the past weeks and will be without their topscorer. More advantage for the hosts that use natural grass while Sarpsborg uses artificial pitch at home.