FK Haugesund - Viking FK

Norway – Tippeligaen

Kick-off:                               13/Jun    18:00 CET

Pick:                                     Viking FK (+0,5)

Odds:                                   1,98 @ Pinnacle

Stake:                                  5/10


Result:                                  2-0     Profit:   -5

I must try this one despite that it looks like a totally crazy bet.

First of all let’s see some numbers. Haugesund is a tipically home team and have got 2-2-1 (16-10 gd) stats at home. They trashed Molde by 5-0 last round, deserved victory but they utilized with high percentage their chances, most of attacks ended with goal. On the other hand Viking is on the bottom of the table with 1-1-3 (2-9 gd) away statistics so far. Their form is terrible, Tromsø and Aalesund also beat them with great advantage. Haugesund won by 4-0 the previous meeting between the two teams. Viking’s sport director Egil Østenstad has resigned last week, the supporters are very angry and so on. Most of punters put money on Haugesund. If we take into consideration these facts the fair odds on the home win should be around 1,60 but the bookmaker offers around 1,90. Why?

I think the bookmaker knows more than the punters usually and have got strong arguments why offer such a high price. Viking represents much more power than Haugesund and Norwegian experts rated them as one of the top three teams before this season and their bad period is extremly long, they must improve sooner or later. Tippeligaen teams had two weeks pause before this round and Viking done hard work during this period. They have a very experienced coach Age Hareide who led the Norwegian National Team and some Scandinavian clubs (Örgryte, Rosenborg, Bröndby, Helsingborg, Molde) and he made tactical changes, they will return to 4-3-3 formation which was more successful last year. The defence has remained the same: Jarstein (reliable goalkeeper), Skogsgeid and Bertelsen as wingers, Bjørdal and Sigurdarson as central backs. Nisja and Danielsen will play still on the midfield together Nevland, who was attacker until now but did not play well and scored only two goals. Sæternes and two young talents Valon Berisha and Lanaly will be the attackers because Ingelsten struggle with long term injury.  „We have primarily focused on ourselves to be better. I have seen very good players and good job in the training field the last week” - said Hareide. Anyway the club management has confirmed his position lately, despite the very bad results.

Both teams are playing with similar starting eleven like last round. At the hosts very important players Tronseth and Sørensen are probably back after injuries but if I know correctly the coach will use same starting eleven like against Molde two weeks ago (5-0). Viking will miss regular midfielder Bjarnason due to international match but he did not impress recently. I think Viking will play with much more determination than before and they won’t lose this derby match, they will have very difficult opponents after this round, they will play against fourth ranked Brann, third ranked Stabæk  and current champions Rosenborg (who need points after the poor season start),  must win for Viking now or never, they will fight for their life like a wounded lion! Bookies want to screw us with this price in my opinion, so I will put on Viking with 0,5 asian handicap.